New poll a crock

Another poll was released at the end of last week, and it purports to show Fallin with a massive lead, but like much Fallin’s campaign, if you take a quick peek under the hood you’ll find that all is not what it seems.

We’ll begin with reports that came in last week of a mysterious poll that was in the field.  Several people emailed this blogger to find out if I knew who was responsible for the phone call they had just received.  The caller would say they were polling in the Oklahoma governor’s race, but then proceeded to ask questions that attempted lead the receiver of the call to believe that Democratic candidate Jari Askins was in some way tied to the national health care reform bill that became law earlier this year.  The person being polled was also lead to identify Askins as a “liberal,” and the poll even included questions about church attendance.

In the polling business this is referred to as a “push poll” and it doesn’t produce reliable data.  That’s ok with the pollster,  because in these cases reliable data isn’t even the goal.  The supposed poll is really just a negative campaign tactic that attempts to smear a candidate one phone call at a time.

Of course, after leading respondents to the answers that the pollster is looking for, the numbers come out heavily weighted to one side, and so the candidate (or candidate’s supporters) who initiated the push poll will proudly publish the results as evidence that they are way ahead in the race, the implication being that if you were going to vote for their opponent, well, you might as well just stay home that day.

Lo and behold, at the end of the week a poll was published and it, predictably, showed the biggest margin yet between the two candidates, with Fallin soaring to a double digit lead.  The pollster was a company called Rasmussen Reports who are notorious for publishing data that is so heavily skewed to the conservative side of a race as to be laughable (and useless to the sort of person who actually wants to see accurate data about a race).

Rasmussen’s bias is well documented and heavily reported.  Political junkies know they’re not to be trusted, but sadly if you’re not the kind of person who pores over ethics reports and polling data as a hobby (I admit it, I’m a junkie…with a hobby most would find about as exciting as watching grass grow) then you probably don’t know that Rasmussen polls are generally worth slightly less than the paper on which they’re printed.  So you see the results, assume they’re accurate, and either rejoice if you’re a Republican or become discouraged and despondent if you’re supporting the Democrat in the race.  And that’s exactly what Rasmussen wants you to do.

Here are the facts; national conservative organizations are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into Oklahoma to convince voters to choose Mary Fallin.  There are competitive gubernatorial races all over the country, and yet precious resources are being funneled here faster than you can say DC Mary.  If the race was as one-sdied as this poll seems to indicate, why would they be wasting their money here, instead of putting it somewhere that has a close race where the candidate really needs the help?  Here’s the answer; they wouldn’t be.  Fallin’s enormous ad buy, and her very negative campaign message are both evidence that she’s running scared, and she knows that this election is likely to be very very close.

The moral of the story here is that if you’re hoping to keep DC Mary out of the governor’s mansion, this so-called poll is no reason to be discouraged.  Keep knocking on doors, keep calling your friends, and for heaven’s sake, keep sending campaign contributions to your candidate.  She’s in this race to win it, and she will so long as you keep working your tail off to support her.